October 2026
Market Update

The housing market is shifting across the greater Seattle region—but it is not shifting in the same way everywhere! However, what we are seeing just about everywhere is that sellers are becoming stubborn, and buyers are getting picky.

Not going to lie…. This is going to be a long one so grab a coffee and some notes and by the end of this you are going to understand everything going on in the greater seattle – especially eastside – market!

On the Eastside, residential inventory is up 49 percent, and the median price is down 10 percent.

In Seattle, residential prices are down only 2 percent, but buyers have more choices than they’ve had in years. & In Snohomish County, inventory is up 45 percent—yet the median residential price has not fallen at all.

And then we have condos – which is a different story all together!

Seattle condos have more than seven months of inventory. Eastside condos have seen an 18 percent decline in the median price. Meanwhile, Snohomish County condo prices are actually slightly higher than they were a year ago.

So is this a buyer’s market? In some places, absolutely.

In others, the market is closer to balanced.

And… for the best homes in the right price ranges, that are PRICED well and PRESENTED well sellers can still receive multiple offers.

Intro

Ok so it is October and we will be reviewing September CLOSED sales

I will focus on Eastside residential homes but will also cover Eastside condos, Seattle residential homes, Seattle condos, Snohomish County residential homes, And Snohomish County condos!

We’re going to compare inventory, pending sales, prices, market activity, and where buyers currently have the greatest negotiating leverage.

We’re starting with Eastside residential real estate because that is where we are seeing one of the most significant shifts and where I do the majority of my business!

Eastside residential inventory increased by almost 50 percent, year over year which is wild!! the median price declined by $150,000, and the market crossed into buyer-advantage territory.

But the headline numbers do not tell the entire story.

Some Eastside homes are sitting for months and requiring major price adjustments. Others are still selling in less than a week and receiving more than the asking price.

Overall we are seeing that Sellers, can be, stubborn, and buyers, can be, picky.

That may be the simplest way to describe the Eastside residential market right now.

At the end of September, the Eastside had 1,941 active residential listings.

That is a 49 percent increase from the 1,303 homes available in September of last year.

At the same time, 478 homes went pending during the month. That was down only 17 percent from the 579 pending sales recorded one year ago.

When we compare active inventory with the pace of pending sales, we arrive at approximately 4.1 months of inventory.

As a general rule: Zero to two months is considered a seller’s market.

Two to four months is considered a neutral or balanced market.

And more than four months is considered a buyer’s market.

At 4.1 months, the Eastside has moved just across that line into buyer-advantage territory.

For context, there were only 2.3 months of inventory in September 2025 and 1.5 months in September 2024.

That means the supply of homes relative to demand increased by 78 percent in one year. This is a significant shift.

Buyers now have more choices, more time to compare properties, and more negotiating leverage than they had during the extremely competitive markets of the last several years.

But 4.1 months of inventory does not mean the market has stopped. It does not mean there are no competitive offers. And it definitely does not mean every seller has to accept a major discount.

It means buyers have regained leverage—especially when a home has been sitting on the market, needs work, is priced aggressively, or is competing against several similar listings.

The simplest way to summarize the shift is this: Buyers have more choices. Sellers have more competition. I have been a bit of a broken record with this all year, but it keeps getting truer and truer!!

SECTION 2 BUYERS ARE WAITING

The decline in pending sales tells us something important about buyer psychology.

Many buyers believe there could be a better opportunity ahead.

They may be waiting for prices to stabilize, for mortgage rates to improve, or for sellers to become more negotiable.

That helps explain why pending sales remain below last year’s level even though there are substantially more homes to choose from.

Buyers are not necessarily gone. Many have delayed their decisions.

Those deferred transactions may return to the market over the next several years as rates change, prices stabilize, or waiting is no longer practical.

But until buyers feel more confident about prices and financing costs, we should expect them to remain selective.

That is why properly priced homes can still attract immediate attention while other listings sit for months.

Today’s buyers are not simply looking for a home. They are looking for a compelling reason to choose one home over all the alternatives.

SECTION 3 WHAT IS HAPPENING TO PRICES?

The median Eastside residential sales price in September was $1,425,000.

One year earlier, the median was $1,575,000.

That is a year-over-year decline of $150,000, or approximately 10 percent. That is an important number, but it needs context.

The median is the midpoint of all sales during a particular period. It does not mean every Eastside home lost 10 percent of its value.

The result can also be influenced by which types of homes sold during the month.

For example, if fewer luxury homes close and more lower-priced homes sell, the median can decline even if the value of an individual home has not fallen by the same percentage.

Still, this is not just statistical noise.

The broader year-to-date data also shows softer prices.

From January through September 2026, the average monthly median price was approximately $1.52 million.

That was about 7 percent below the corresponding 2025 average of approximately $1.638 million.

So although we shouldn’t automatically apply the September decline to every property, the data clearly shows that overall pricing pressure has shifted downward.

The September median was also lower than August’s $1.446 million, July’s $1.575 million, and the 2026 high of approximately $1.612 million reached in April.

For homeowners, this is why relying on a value from spring—or on a neighbor’s sale from a year ago—can result in an unrealistic list price today.

For buyers, it creates opportunities, but it does not eliminate the need to evaluate each home using recent and highly local comparable sales.

SECTION 4 HOMES ARE SELLING, BUT PRICING MATTERS

A total of 445 residential sales closed during September, down approximately 5 percent from the same month last year.

The report includes a detailed pricing breakdown for 443 of those sales.

Of that group:

Eleven percent sold above the asking price without a prior price change or relisting.

Twelve percent sold at the asking price.

Twenty-eight percent sold below the asking price without first changing the price.

And 49 percent sold only after a price change or relisting.

That last number is one of the most important statistics! Nearly HALF of September’s sales involved a price correction or relisting before the home sold.

That tells us buyers are not simply purchasing whatever comes to market.

They are comparing value carefully, and they are willing to wait when a seller’s price does not match the home’s condition, location, or competition. Even though as a listing agent you sometimes just want them to submit an offer and start a conversation haha

At the same time, 11 percent still sold above asking. Those homes spent an average of only five days on the market and achieved a median price three percent above their list price.

So bidding wars have not disappeared. Over the past month I have had 2 of my own listings go pending right away. One was at list price and the other was over list price with multiple offers!

However, buyers have become selective. The homes receiving immediate attention tend to be the ones that combine the right price, strong presentation, desirable location, and a condition that feels move-in ready.

Homes that sold at asking price averaged nine days on the market. Homes selling below asking without a price change averaged 21 days and closed at a median of three percent below list price.

Properties requiring a price change or relisting averaged 91 days on the market. This is the clearest possible message for sellers: the first few weeks matter. A seller can test the market, but the market will answer quickly. If buyers consistently choose competing homes, additional time alone usually will not solve the problem.

SECTION 5 THE COST OF WAITING

The relationship between market time and sales price becomes even clearer when we look at cumulative days on market.

Homes selling within the first 15 days achieved a median of 100 percent of their original asking price.

These fast sales represented approximately 38 percent of September’s closings.

For homes taking between 16 and 30 days to sell, the median dropped to 95 percent of the original list price.

Between 31 and 60 days, it fell to 92.7 percent.

Between 61 and 90 days, sellers received a median of 88.4 percent of their original price.

And homes taking more than 90 days sold for a median of just 84.4 percent of their first asking price.

That does not mean time itself caused every price reduction.

Homes that begin with an unrealistic price are naturally more likely to sit longer.

But the pattern shows why an aspirational starting price can be expensive.

Once a listing becomes stale, buyers begin to wonder what is wrong with it. Sellers may then need to reduce the price more dramatically than they would have if they had positioned the home correctly at the beginning.

In this market, pricing is not just a marketing decision. It is part of the seller’s risk-management strategy.

SECTION 6 NOT EVERY LISTING RESULTS IN A SALE

There is another statistic sellers should understand.

During the trailing 12 months, Eastside closed sales equaled only about 50 percent of the number of new listings taken.

One year earlier, that ratio was approximately 61 percent.

That does not mean every home has exactly a 50 percent chance of selling. Listings can be canceled, relisted, withdrawn, or counted in different periods.

But it does illustrate the larger issue:

Putting a home on the market does not guarantee a successful closing.

The more difficult the market becomes, the more important pricing, preparation, presentation, negotiation, and local market knowledge become.

Buyers gravitate toward the properties that represent the clearest value.

SECTION 7 INTEREST RATES MAY BE THE BIGGER STORY

Andddddd of course, Mortgage rates remain a major part of the affordability story.

Rates change frequently, so buyers should always obtain a current quote from a qualified lender. But the rise in interest rates make it so lower list prices have not necessarily made homes feel much more affordable.

Using the report’s standardized principal-and-interest calculations:

A $1,425,000 purchase at 6.86 percent produces an estimated payment of approximately $9,350 per month.

At 7.28 percent, that rises to approximately $9,750.

And the previous year’s $1,575,000 median price at 6.35 percent produced an estimated payment of approximately $9,803.

In other words, a buyer purchasing at the lower median price with the higher rate could have nearly the same principal-and-interest payment as someone who purchased at last year’s considerably higher median price.

That may be one of the best explanations for why buyers remain picky and transaction volume remains soft.

As a rough rule of thumb, a one-percentage-point change in the mortgage rate can have approximately the same payment impact as a 10 percent change in price.

This is why buyers should evaluate the total monthly cost of ownership—not just the purchase price.

That includes principal, interest, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and any homeowners association dues.

Actual payments will vary based on the down payment, loan amount, credit profile, lender, and other costs of course

Buyers may also be able to negotiate seller-paid closing costs or an interest-rate buydown, particularly when a property has been on the market for an extended period – this is something I have seen a lot of success with recently! And ALSO remember that you will (hopefully) be able to refinance at some point in the future, as long as you are comfortable with the payments until then!

SECTION 8 CONDITIONS VARY DRAMATICALLY BY PRICE

The overall market has 4.1 months of inventory, but that average hides major differences between price ranges.

Based on the six-week sales ratios:

Homes from $700,000 to $799,999 had approximately 2.3 months of inventory.

The $800,000 to $899,999 range had approximately 2.8 months.

Homes between $900,000 and $999,999 had approximately 2.9 months.

These ranges were closer to a balanced market and generally more competitive than the Eastside average.

Between $1 million and $1.25 million, the supply was approximately 3.6 months.

Between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, it was approximately 3.3 months.

But conditions became more favorable to buyers in several higher price brackets.

The $1.75 million to $2 million range had approximately 4.3 months of inventory.

From $2 million to $2.5 million, there were approximately 5.1 months.

From $3 million to $4 million, there were approximately 5.2 months.

And above $5 million, the report showed approximately 9.7 months of inventory.which is literally insane

The precise numbers can move significantly from week to week, particularly in price ranges with fewer sales.

But the overall pattern is useful.

Entry-level and midrange Eastside homes can still attract competition when they are priced correctly.

Luxury buyers generally have more selection, more negotiating power, and less pressure to act immediately. However, let me tell you that is not ALWAYS true. I just had an offer out for a property just under $5m another offer came in on it after nearly 130 days on market and no price drops and it ended up going for significantly over lsit price. It was awful haha

And THIS is why the headline of “Eastside buyer’s market” is not enough by itself. Crazy things are still happening and you don’t always have as much time as you think you do.

SECTION 11 WHAT THIS MEANS FOR BUYERS

However all in all, If you are buying, this is the most favorable negotiating environment the Eastside has offered in several years.

You have more inventory, fewer competing buyers, and a greater chance of negotiating on price, repairs, closing costs, or financing incentives.

But the best properties can still move quickly and you should be ready to move quickly.

Your strategy should depend on the individual listing and not the market as a whole.

If a home is new, correctly priced, and already receiving strong interest, an overly aggressive opening offer could cost you the property.

If it has been available for 30, 60, or 90 days—or has already reduced its price—the conversation miiiight change.

A slower market can also provide more room for inspections and due diligence.

SECTION 12 WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SELLERS

For sellers, this market rewards preparation and realism.

There are almost 2,000 active residential listings competing for buyers’ attention.

Your home needs to be positioned as one of the best choices in its price range—not simply placed online at the price you hope to receive.

That means studying current competition, recent pending sales, and recent closings.

It means addressing deferred maintenance where practical.

It means strong presentation and marketing.

Most importantly, it means having a pricing strategy before the home launches, along with a clear plan for how you will respond if the market does not react.

The encouraging news is that well-positioned homes are still selling quickly, and some are still receiving more than their asking price.

The difficult news is that the market is showing very little patience for homes that miss the mark.

Sellers need to give buyers a compelling reason to choose their property over the alternatives.

SECTION 13 HOW DOES THE EASTSIDE COMPARE WITH THE REST OF THE REGION?

Now that we have broken down Eastside residential real estate, let’s compare it with the condo market, Seattle, and Snohomish County.

We’ll start with Eastside condos.

The Eastside condo market had 5.2 months of inventory, placing it firmly in buyer’s-market territory.

Active condo listings increased 28 percent, while pending sales fell 20 percent and closed sales declined 22 percent.

The median Eastside condo price was $600,000, down 18 percent from $730,000 one year earlier.

That is a substantially larger price decline than we saw in Eastside residential homes.

For Eastside condo buyers, greater selection and slower sales may create opportunities to negotiate.

For sellers, condition, monthly homeowners association costs, reserves, assessments, and pricing can all have a major effect on buyer interest.

Now let’s look at Seattle.

Seattle’s residential market was more balanced than the Eastside, with three months of inventory.

Seattle had 1,671 active residential listings, up 25 percent from last year. Pending sales declined 10 percent, and closed sales declined 7 percent.

The median Seattle residential price was $960,000, down ONLY 2 percent year over year.

So Seattle residential prices were dipping rather than dropping.

Inventory was higher than buyers and sellers became accustomed to during the unusually tight market of the previous decade, but it was not at a crisis level.

Well-positioned Seattle homes were still receiving strong interest.

Twenty-four percent of September residential sales closed above asking price, while another 20 percent sold at asking. A lot better for sellers than we were seeing on the eastside!

Seattle condos were a very different story though.

The city had 7.3 months of condo inventory—the highest supply level among the markets in this comparison.

Active condo listings were up 14 percent, while both pending and closed sales were down 25 percent.

However, the median Seattle condo price was $530,000, up approximately 1 percent from one year ago.

That combination is important: Seattle condo prices held relatively steady, but buyers had more inventory and significantly more negotiating leverage.

Now let’s move north to Snohomish County.

The Snohomish County residential market had 3.4 months of inventory, keeping it within balanced-market territory.

Active listings increased 45 percent to 2,375. Pending sales declined 17 percent, and closed sales declined 8 percent.

But unlike the Eastside, the median residential price held flat at $750,000.

Snohomish County home prices have been remarkably stable even as inventory has increased and sales activity has slowed.

The median was also $750,000 in September 2025 and has changed relatively little since 2022.

However that stability has not eliminated the need for careful pricing.

Approximately 39 percent of Snohomish County residential sales required a price correction before selling, while homes that sold within 15 days generally captured their original asking price.

Finally, Snohomish County condos had 4.9 months of inventory, placing them just inside buyer’s-market territory.

Active condo inventory increased 40 percent. Pending sales fell 18 percent, and closed sales declined 12 percent.

The median condo price was $489,950, up approximately 2 percent year over year.

The regional takeaway is that inventory and buyer choice increased almost everywhere, but prices did not move in the same direction.

The Eastside experienced the greatest residential price decline.

Seattle and Snohomish County residential prices were considerably more stable.

And condos generally offered buyers the greatest negotiating leverage, especially in Seattle.

This is why buyers and sellers need to look beyond broad headlines.

Property type and location can completely change the strategy.

CLOSING SUMMARY

And to close here is the September Eastside market in one sentence:

Sellers are stubborn, buyers are picky, but life continues to create reasons for people to move.

Nearly half of September sales involved a price change or relisting before the property sold.

And although prices declined, higher mortgage rates absorbed much of the potential improvement in affordability.

Across the broader region, buyers generally have more choices and greater negotiating power—but that leverage varies significantly.

Seattle and Snohomish County residential markets remain more balanced.

Andddd the c ondo markets favor buyers more strongly.

And even within the Eastside, a well-positioned home can still attract immediate competition.

This is a market that demands a more precise strategy from both sides.

Buyers should use their leverage—but recognize the properties where that leverage is limited.

Sellers should respect the competition—but understand that buyers will still act decisively when a home represents clear value.

Nobody can predict the exact bottom of the market.

What you can do is evaluate the information, understand your options, and make a decision that fits your finances and your life.

If you would like a more specific analysis for your neighborhood, price range, or property type, reach out to me.

The regional numbers are useful, but the most important market is the one directly surrounding the home you plan to buy or sell.

If you don’t know me, my name is bella chaffey lakic I have been a realtor with windermere for ahout 8 years now – which is kinda crazy haha – I work with buyers, sellers, investors and many relocating to the area. I also love hearing from people who find me on youtube! If you have any questions please reach out! All my info is in the description!

Thanks for watching, and I’ll see you in the one!!